politics

In early November 2021, Jean-Luc Mélenchon was polling between 7.5 and 10% of voting intentions

Politico notes that this is a first since the opening of the election campaign.

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Key facts

  • In early November 2021, Jean-Luc Mélenchon was polling between 7.5 and 10 percent of voting intentions. Five months later, 21.95 percent of voters…
  • Politico notes that this is a first since the opening of the election campaign.
  • The survey was conducted by self-administered online questionnaire among 1,164 people registered on the electoral rolls, drawn from a sample of 1,242…

In early November 2021, Jean-Luc Mélenchon was polling between 7.5 and 10 percent of voting intentions. Five months later, 21.95 percent of voters cast their ballots for him.

Politico notes that this is a first since the opening of the election campaign.

The survey was conducted by self-administered online questionnaire among 1,164 people registered on the electoral rolls, drawn from a sample of 1,242 people representative of the French population. The sample was constructed using the quota method, based on sex, age, socio-professional category and region of residence.

Six months ago, the France Unbowed leader was credited with 13.5 to 15 percent of voting intentions in the polls.

Above all, he is doing better than in his previous campaigns.

The gap is also significant compared with the opinion polls of November 2016, which placed him between 11 and 14 percent, whereas he had won 19.58 percent of the vote in the first round.

In November 2011, the polls placed him between 5 and 8 percent, compared with 11.10 percent of votes cast the following April.

Dig deeper

Who is Jean-Luc Mélenchon?

A French politician and founder of La France insoumise, he was a candidate in the presidential election in 2012, 2017 and 2022.

What does the term "Insoumis" refer to?

It is the nickname of the activists and elected officials of La France insoumise, the radical-left movement created by Mélenchon in 2016.

Which election do these percentages refer to?

It refers to the first round of the French presidential election, a vote by direct universal suffrage in which only the top two advance to the second round.

Why does this gap between the polls and the result matter?

It shows a late-campaign surge: Mélenchon clearly exceeded the voting intentions measured a few months earlier, as he had already done in 2012 and in 2017.

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