Production has risen in recent weeks. It had fallen considerably with the war in Iran.
In its November monthly report, released on Thursday, the agency puts this gap at an average of 1.7 million barrels per day. Supply would stand at 105 million barrels per day, according to Reuters.
The market is thus showing signs of rebalancing after a period of tension opened by the conflict. These signs remain tentative, however, the IEA writes.
Supply is expected to exceed demand in the final quarter, then consolidate at the start of 2027, according to the report.
The release of strategic stocks is, by contrast, producing its first effects, the International Energy Agency indicates.
On the consumption side, global demand is expected to fall by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2026, to 102.3 million barrels per day, according to the same report cited by Reuters.
The IEA then anticipates a rebound of 2 million barrels per day in 2027.
The agency does not speak of a return to a settled balance. It notes only the first signs of a rebalancing, the first since the start of the war in Iran.
Supply exceeding demand in the fourth quarter of 2026 therefore remains, in its reading, a still-fragile turning point for the oil market.